H is the horrible damage Greeny does to Northwestern by constantly mentioning his journalism degree.
What is Yovani Gallardo worth? Is he a “#2 starter?”
By most accounts Yovani Gallardo is having a bad year. It’s hard to dispute that opinion except to say that some of his peripherals aren’t as bad as the results have been. Gallardo has been a divisive figure his entire time as a Brewer. In his younger days he teased everyone with ace potential, but his inability to put guys away consistently basically cemented him as a solid 2nd tier pitcher who would still occasionally flash brilliance, but who, more often than not, would be exiting having pitched about five and two thirds innings.
Gallardo has been, without question, a valuable asset and I’m not sure it was ever fair to hold him to such lofty expectations. The fact is that since 2009 he has never thrown fewer than 180 innings in a season, and he’s very likely to exceed that total again. It is, in fact, very likely that he will exceed 200 IP for the third straight year. In addition to being quite durable outside of a freak Reed Johnson-related injury, he is also just 27 and under contract for one more year for $11.25 million with a team option in 2015 for $13 million. While he’s not super cheap, getting 200 innings of above average starting pitching on the open market isn’t cheap either.
If you’re another team looking at Yo, what do you see? Well, you probably see the troubling things first. Yo’s strikeout rate is a career low 7.2/9. You all already knew that.
Behind the strikeouts I suspect we have a guy who has actually adjusted pretty well to diminishing skills, but who has been victimized by bad defense. For instance:
- We know the Brewers are the worst team in baseball at turning ground balls into outs. Yay.
- Yovani has a career high GB rate at 49.9%, and a 1.87 GB/FB ratio.
- His LD% is up a bit, but not catastrophically so. It was worse in 2010. And in any case,
- He has a career low FB% and
- Only 12.1% of those are leaving the yard, his lowest since 2010’s freakishly low 7.1%
- And if you’re looking for another indictment of his infield defense, his bunt hit % is also at a career high.
Anyway, while Gallardo is allowing more balls in play than he ever has before, the quality of a lot of those balls isn’t actually that great, and a more competent defense might have saved his ERA from looking like such a disaster. You can see this in his 3.80 xFIP. Last year it was 3.55. Not a huge difference. Back in 2009 it was 3.71. I think Yovani Gallardo can still be an effective pitcher. The biggest problem with him is that even at his best, he’s really never been a top-flight trade candidate for a contender. Here’s why.
So what’s a #1 starter (or a #2 starter, or 3 or whatever)? We can debate this endlessly, but it’s definitely not as simple as #1= top 30, #2 = 30-60, especially for pitchers, and especially for pitchers you may trade.
The reason for this is simple: a team like the Tigers has 3 of the best ten pitchers in baseball this year by WAR, and none of those is Justin Verlander. Yo may be a “#2” pitcher in the abstract, but on the Tigers, a team that is contending and therefore more likely to buy at the deadline, he’s no better than a #5, if even that. Contending teams, by their nature, employ good pitchers already. It’s easy to have a hole in your offense. When the Brewers had Casey McGehee and upgraded to Aramis Ramirez, the upgrade was enormous. For a starting pitching staff though, adding any given pitcher displaces the #5 starter.
Gallardo’s career high ERA+ for a season is 112. On the Red Sox that makes him a #3. On Tampa this year that would squeak in as a #3 just ahead of Matt Moore, but really, c’mon. He’s a 3 on the Braves with that number. Cards? 5. Pirates? 5. Reds? 6. Maybe 7. Texas? 5. Arizona? 3. The Dodgers? 4.
See any 2s on that list?
ERA+ isn’t the best stat, but keep in mind that:
- 112 is Yo’s BEST EVER outside of an awesome rookie season where he only threw 110 IP, and
- He’s only at 86 this year, and
- His skills have been noticeably eroding, so
- It’s unlikely that he will be that good again.
Yo’s career FIP is 3.66. That makes him a 4 on the Cardinals, a 4 on the Reds, a 3-ish on the Braves, a 3 or 4 on the Red Sox, a 4 on the Rays, a 5 or 6 on the Tigers, a 3 on the Indians, and a 3 on the Dodgers. Again, see any 2s on that list?
So Yo is a #2, probably for some teams. Some teams that have failed to develop starting pitching for a while. Some rebuilding teams. Maybe a team filled with aging veterans. But if you think you have a #2 pitcher who you can trade to a contending team, think again. They’ve almost certainly already got that guy. Consider further that in the playoffs your rotation is shortened. Does Yo make the Tiger’s post-season roster at all?
Yo can still be valuable to a contender, but he’s not jumping to the front of a rotation for a contender, he’s bumping the last guy out, and there are a ton of guys who are capable of doing that.
If the Brewer front office is going to be waiting for #2 offers to come in for Yo, they’re going to be waiting a long time.
She told deputies she and Rodriguez had been arguing before going to bed, and he became upset and struck her on the head.
She said her nose began to bleed after getting hit due to a history of physical abuse. The woman told police she grabbed a sweatshirt and tried to stop the bleeding, but then Rodriguez grabbed her by the hair and threw her.
Once on the floor, she said Rodriguez then began kicking her and injured her left upper shoulder blade, bruised her left upper thigh and injured her left hand near her wrist.
After the beating, she said Rodriguez dragged her to his car. She told him to take her to the hospital, but Rodriguez screamed at her to change her bloody clothes and refused to take her anywhere until she did. She told Rodriguez she was in a great amount of pain and unable to lift her arm very high, so he cut the sleeve of her shirt so she could remove it.
After putting on a clean shirt, according to the complaint, Rodriguez began to drive the victim around, but she said it appeared they were just driving around in circles in the subdivision. They began to argue again in the truck and the victim said Rodriguez struck her in the chin, then drove around some more before returning to the home.
When they got back, the victim said she wanted to call the police for help, but Rodriguez then grabbed all the of the phones and began to hide them, so she had to go to the second floor of the residence to find a telephone to use. Police interviewed the maid about the incident and she said she took a pill to sleep and didn’t see the incident, but she has worked for Rodriguez for six years and this is a normal and known behavior for him.
According to the complaint, Rodriguez was asked how he pushed the woman away and he told deputies “when she was coming at me, I grabbed her by the hair and then was pushing her aside,” then made motions as how he did it. Rodriguez was asked how the bloody clothes had gotten on the floor and he said the woman asked him to cut it off because she was unable to take it off because her hand hurt too badly.
Deputies searched the house and found a bloody sweatshirt and a pullover-type shirt with blood on it at the entrance of a walk-in closet. Across from the closet was a bloody bath towel and blood on the right side of the bed.
Deputies talked with the woman again on Sept. 20, two days after the call, and she had a brace on her wrist, but now denied having any other injuries. She allowed a female deputy to inspect her back, but refused to let the deputy see her thigh.
The woman then told the deputy the entire altercation was her fault because she started the argument and pushed Rodriguez first. She said she fell down on her own, which re-aggravated a pre-existing wrist injury. She then denied Rodriguez had touched or harmed her in any way.
According to the report, the woman said she took full responsibility for “disrespecting” Rodriguez, and said she only called 911 to try and calm things down and then gave a vague answer when asked about Rodriguez hiding the phones. from the closet, the woman said she was simply in that room with her baby, but when deputies had arrived at the home, the baby was in a different room.
The victim told deputies her relationship with Rodriguez is over and she wants to go back to her home country. She said she is dependent on Rodriguez for money because she has no friends or family in the country, regretted calling 911 and didn’t want to pursue the matter further
But it’s better for us not to know the kinds of sacrifices the professional-grade athlete has made to get so very good at one particular thing. Oh, we’ll invoke lush clichés about the lonely heroism of Olympic athletes, the pain and analgesia of football, the early rising and hours of practice and restricted diets, the preflight celibacy, et cetera. But the actual facts of the sacrifices repel us when we see them: basketball geniuses who cannot read, sprinters who dope themselves, defensive tackles who shoot up with bovine hormones until they collapse or explode. We prefer not to consider closely the shockingly vapid and primitive comments uttered by athletes in postcontest interviews or to consider what impoverishments in one’s mental life would allow people actually to think the way great athletes seem to think. Note the way “up close and personal” profiles of professional athletes strain so hard to find evidence of a rounded human life — outside interests and activities, values beyond the sport. We ignore what’s obvious, that most of this straining is farce. It’s farce because the realities of top-level athletics today require an early and total commitment to one area of excellence. An ascetic focus. A subsumption of almost all other features of human life to one chosen talent and pursuit. A consent to live in a world that, like a child’s world, is very small. – David Foster Wallace, The String Theory
One thing that lawyers are good at, as a rule, is separating process from results. We have to because in the law if you screw up the process you will more often than not end with the wrong result.
We also (usually) understand why processes exist. Sometimes that reason is evil (to protect a business or a cartel from competition because they lobbied hard for it), but sometimes, and probably not often enough, that process is there to protect the little guy. This is why I’d caution all of the players out there celebrating this suspension. I understand wanting clean game. I understand wanting to escape the pressure of using potentially dangerous drugs to compete. The fact remains, the way that MLB went about this was amazingly shady, and that the players have sacrificed a good chunk of their power by not backing up their cheating brethren with regard to the process.
Braun is guilty. I think at this point everyone knows it. You should have known it earlier. I knew it for sure (basically) when reports surfaced that he tested positive for synthetic testosterone. It’s easy to see poor storage causing a false positive. It’s much more difficult to see poor storage causing a foreign substance to appear. But frankly, none of that should matter to the players because whatever benefits they’ve gained from this minor victory in “cleaning up the game” is going to end up costing them.
Major League Baseball is not the government. The government is limited by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. It can’t try you twice for the same crime. It is subject to a series of rules governing how it collects and presents evidence. Think about what baseball did in this case.
- They lost using their own “due process”, but no problem, they just decided to punish Braun again.
- They did so by buying evidence and bribing bankrupt criminals.
- They fired their impartial “judge.”
- MLB broke the JDA by leaking Braun’s failed test.
- They continue to lie about this.
I would actually very much like to know if any major leaguer has beaten a positive test before. Remember, we were not supposed to know about Braun. Tests like this are absolutely not perfect and given the number of tests administered by MLB, if no one has ever won an appeal, than too many players have been suspended. If no one ever wins except you, you’re not really playing fair, and you’re definitely rigging something.
If you’re a player today, the game may be marginally cleaner than it was yesterday. You are also in more peril from your boss. If you fail a test, whether it’s a true positive or not, MLB can slander you with impunity. They can suspend you, and suspend you again. The can rig their process the whole way through with nothing but Hosannas from the media. And it won’t even take a failed test, by the way. A piece of paper is sufficient. How many people will end up thinking Gio Gonzales is dirty after this for precisely that reason.
You think it can’t happen to you? You think that MLB wouldn’t want to gain sway over the players active in the union? You think they’d never do anything so dirty? Yeah, OK, keep telling yourself that.
Yesterday the MLB players union granted their bargaining opponents the ability to turn any player they choose into a pariah, and to make the union turn on them at any time and for any reason they choose. The process matters.
In the US criminal justice system we set up the default as innocent, until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. We put safeguards into place to keep this presumption intact. They don’t always work, they’ve been attacked, and they’ve been muted thanks to a more vocal “law and order” voting block, but they’re still there. MLB was only kept in check by the union. At this point they are, for all intents and purposes, a dictatorship.
Players are not heroes. They are not inherently good people. Everyone who writes on this blog knows that, but way too many people seem to forget repeatedly even though we’ve been through Favre. Even though Michael Jordan is a complete douche nozzle. This message just never sinks in for some people.
I absolutely don’t care about Braun’s personal life. I don’t know him and never will. He’s always struck me a guy who is probably a jerk. He has an edge to him. I don’t know him and could be wrong. Maybe he’s the nicest guy in the world. But I don’t care because he makes my baseball team more likely to win a championship. That’s really all I care about. I do not understand seriously caring about anything else. Packer Fans who continued to cheer for Favre after he left make my brain hurt. People still love their kings, apparently.
Finally, regarding all of Braun’s lying, lying is bad, m’kay. But if you happen to be in a protracted legal battle, a lot of what you say or do not say publicly is out of your hands. I hope none of you ever finds yourself in such a situation. Everything Braun said wrong may very well be completely on him, however it is absolutely impossible for any of us to tell what he could and could not say, and what he was ordered to say by his people.
1. The Laurenzi victim thing. Braun took the comments too far, but he didn’t ruin his life:
Laurenzi Sr. says Braun’s comments have had no permanent effect on the
family, and his son is still doing testing work for the Chicago Cubs
Braun was definitely too strong in his words against Laurenzi and should probably try to make things right with Laurenzi if that what Laurenzi wants (I kind of doubt it, but who knows). Maybe today Laurenzi comes out and speaks about what has happened to him, but most were skeptical of tampering to begin with and were instead criticizing him for not following MLB protocol, which was of course, fair. Laurenzi was not fired by MLB and by all indications seems to be doing fine.
The Lance Armstrong comparisons can stop any day now as well. Armstrong got his teammates fired, made life miserable for his assistant, got other staff members fired, told Betsy Andreu that he hoped someone broke a baseball bat over her head and had a reign on terror that lasted for a decade-plus. Braun came out too strong against the guy who didn’t follow the CBA when handling his urine sample.
2. Aaron Rodgers – I know Packers rule over all else, but who freaking cares.
3. Baseball writers trying to top each other in who is more outraged
4. The winner of said outrage contest:
5. Brewer fans who say they are betrayed or lied to. Its sports, get over it.
6. The National media guys who act like Brewer fans are complete morons for “defending” Braun – aka having issues with how MLB has approached this or were waiting until you know, the process played out.
7. People who don’t understand how baseball contracts work and want Braun cut
8. The “what do I tell my kid” people. You tell your kid Braun did something he shouldn’t have and got suspended. If it’s a lot more complicated than this, you have bigger issues.
9. This Justin Hull tweet, which wins for being the most trolling and over the top:
No Derek this week so no energy to do an intro. Here we go:
Q: Edd, Cushing, WI – Due to injuries the Brewers have had a number of spot starters, Fiers, Hand, Gorzelanny, Figaro and Burgos come to mind. Of those pitchers do any of the five have the 3 quality pitches needed to start on a consistant basis or are they better suited to long relief and spot starters?
Q: Nick, Readstown, Wi – Tom, The Brewers are in last place and I noted the farm system (Nashville and Huntsville) are left wanting. This being the case it would appear that Milwaukee will not field a contender for 3, 4, or 5 years at best. Give me a reason to the contrary.
Wow, Nick sure is demanding.
Q: Big Dave, Waterloo – Everyone knows the Brewers are going nowhere unless they get the rotation fixed. With the new rules signing a free agent in the off season would be a disaster as they would lose what looks to be a top 5 pick. The talk is they want to hold on to core players Gomez, Aoki, Lucroy, etc. I truly believe Gomez is having a career year and it’s an anomoly. Trade him while you can get max value. Your thoughts? How do they fix the rotation if they can’t sign free agents and won’t trade anything of value?
I mostly just feel bad for Big Dave here. We all wish the Brewers weren’t in this situation.
Q: Rabbi Lipschitz, Pepperville/ND – If Jonathan Lucroy was an animal, what animal would he be?
Stop trying too hard. YOU WILL NEVER BE DEREK FROM SUPERIOR.
Q: Kyle – Tom, if Yuni B were secretly replaced with a cardboard cutout of himself for plate appearances do you think his OBP would improve?
A: Tom Haudricourt – No but at its current level it couldn’t go down by much
Both the question and the answer are winners.
LOSER (JUST GOOGLE IT DIVISION)
Q: Bill Lamensdorf, Franklin, WI – If Ryan Braun is given a suspension from MLB due to the Biogenesis investigation, do the Brewers still have to pay him his salary while he is suspended???
Q: Derek, Flora, ILL – How are the draft picks doing in the minors? Anyone standing out?
Q: jerry, necedah – Hi Tom, Where do you think Mark A. has been lately? How long will he put up w/an organization that has always been a loser? We need a Sat. nght massacure. Top to bottom house cleaning.
I hate myself for having read this chat
Q: Edd, Cushing, WI – I heard Buster Olney on a recent Baseball Tonight talk about the Braun case. He said he has been in several club houses and has had players come up to him and ask when is baseball going to resolve this case. He went on to say that the players want Braun suspended, that they are angry with him over the things he said about the collector and want the cheaters out of baseball. I don’t believe a lot of what ESPN says, but I’m wondering if you think that statement is accurate and if you have heard similar statements?
Why is this guy asking Tom a question about Buster Olney?
Tom, Milwaukee – Tom, So let me see if I got this straight….we haven’t developed a home grown pitching prospect since Yovanni Gallardo so the talk is lets trade him for prospects that we hope down the line could be major league ballplayers and maybe as good as Yo!!?? I hope mgmt doesn’t think all trades will end up with quality MLB players like Segura…Matt LaPorta comes to mind as a can’t miss prospect.
Tom, that’s pretty much how it works. You trade good players you’re going to lose in the short term in order to hopefully get good players back who will be there for the long term.