ZIPS v. PECOTA

I really do enjoy PECOTA day even though it’s ultimately kind of silly. Still, the reason I like PECOTA (and ZIPS) isn’t that they might be right or wrong, it’s that they give you a baseline to judge actual performance. If the Brewers are better than PECOTA thinks I can point to something like Wily Peralta exceeding his projection, and I like being able to do that.

PECOTA is also one of BP’s biggest selling point, so I’m not going to just print the Brewer projections here. That’d be stealing. What I will do is tell you whether PECOTA is higher or lower on any individual player.

Nori Aoki

ZIPS – .288/.342/.395, 7 HR, 31 2B

PECOTA – Higher

Rickie Weeks

ZIPS – .252/.344/.443, 22 HR, 22 2B

PECOTA – Higher, just barely.

Ryan Braun

ZIPS – .302/.371/.540, 33HRs, 37 2B

PECOTA – Higher, just barely.

Aramis Ramirez

ZIPS – .280/.338/.494, 23 HR, 32 2B

PECOTA – Lower, but basically even.

Mat Gamel

ZIPS – .261/.332/.440, 11 HR, 17 2B

PECOTA – ZIPS likes him better per play, PECOTA thinks he’ll play more.

Jonathan Lucroy 

ZIPS – .274/.328/.421, 12 HR, 20 2B

PECOTA – Lower

Carlos Gomez

ZIPS – .249/.300/.418, 13 HR, 16 2B

PECOTA – Lower

Jean Segura

ZIPS – .278/.325/.402, 9 HRs, 20 2B

PECOTA – Much lower

Corey Hart

ZIPS – .278/.329/.485, 27 HRs, 30 2B

PECOTA – Lower

Yovani Gallardo

ZIPS – 194 IP, 199 SO, 70 BB, 3.80 ERA, 3.57 FIP

PECOTA – Lower

Marco Estrada

ZIPS – 121 IP, 114 SO, 34 BB, 4.09 ERA, 3.69 FIP

PECOTA – He’ll pitch more, and worse.

Mike Fiers

ZIPS – 134 IP, 124 SO, 48 BB, 3.9 ERA, 4.10 FIP

PECOTA – More innings, very slightly worse.

Chris Narveson

ZIPS – 87 IP, 72 SO, 33 BB, 4.86 ERA, 4.37 FIP

PECOTA – More pitching, much worse.

Wily Peralta

ZIPS – 153.1 IP, 135 SO, 90 BB, 4.58 ERA, 4.42 WHIP

PECOTA – Lower

Mark Rogers

ZIPS – 109.1, 80 SO, 85 BB, 4.69 ERA, 4.91 FIP

PECOTA – Way less, and worse. This one makes no sense to me. PECOTA thinks Rogers strikes out way more than he walks, but still assigns him a higher ERA and FIP in fewer innings. Just weird.

John Axford

ZIPS – 66.1 IP, 83 SO, 32 BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.37 FIP

PECOTA – A little lower.

So there you have it.  PECOTA looks like it accounts for the Hart injury which explains some of the differences in the offensive end. To me it looks like the systems diverge wildly on younger players (Segura and Peralta in particular) and the innings breakdown among starting pitchers. ZIPS doesn’t think Narveson starts, and that Marco won’t throw that many innings.  PECOTA doesn’t think Mark Rogers lasts very long.

If you want to know more details, you’ll have to fork over some money to Baseball Prospectus.  You can find the Brewers’ full ZIPs projections here.

Apples to Apples, ZIPS to ZIPS

Here’s the Brewer offense as projected by ZIPS in 2013 v. 2012.  I’ll only post players who were in the majors, so no Segura.

Ryan Braun:

2012 – .296/.360/.525, 30 HR

2013 – .302/.371/.540, 33 HR

ZIPS likes Braun more in 2013

Aramis Ramirez

2012 – .278/.340/.476, 21 HRs

2013 – .280/.338/.494, 23 HRs

ZIPS likes Ramirez more in 2013

Rickie Weeks

2012 – .260/.350/.460, 20 HRs

2013 – .252/.344/.443, 22 HRs

ZIPS likes Weeks slightly less in 2013, though it’s close.

Jonathan Lucroy

2012 – .254/.313/.375, 11 HRs

2013 – .274/.328/.421, 12 HRs

ZIPS like Luc more in 2013.

Corey Hart

2012 – .270/.333/.481, 24 HRs

2013 – .265/.329/.485, 27 HRs

ZIPS likes Corey about the same.

Carlos Gomez

2012 – .243/.296/.374, 7 HRs

2013 – .249/.300/.418, 13 HRs

ZIPS likes GoGo more in 2013.

Nori Aoki -

2012 – .289/.338/.393 6 HRs

2013 – .288/.342/.395, 7 HRs

ZIPS likes Nori slightly more in 2013

Mat Gamel, just for kicks

2012 – .264/.341/.433, 16 HRs

2013 – .261/.332/.440, 11 HRs.

ZIPS likes Games less in 2013, but who cares?

So basically ZIPS likes the #1 offense in the NL in 2013 even more than it liked them in 2012.

If you rebuild it, people will not come.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been rebuilding in certain markets. The Yankees and Cardinals have rolled by like an army of steamrollers. The plans of the Pirates and Royals have been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But rebuilding in Pittsburgh and Kansas City has marked the time. This field, this game, is a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was horribly mismanaged, and that will be again. Oh people will stay away, Ray. People will stay away in droves.

DON’T TANK!*

This post is slightly incoherent, and it’s your fault. All of you people talking about rebuilding, about selling off players, about magically becoming the Rays, stop it.

Start here.

Good. Now let’s move on.

Part I – We Didn’t Sign Ryan Demptser! Quick, sell off everyone! We’re doomed!

In the NBA tanking is rampant. There’s a good reason for this, as one superstar can basically turn any team into contender for years. The value of draft pick 1 is vastly superior to the value of draft pick 6 or 12 or 20.  MLB is not like this at all, and not just because high draft picks are less important.  Way too many of you are panicking and calling for the Brewers to dismantle the ship and it’s weird.  It’s especially weird because the cause of this concern seems to be the lack of action in free agency.  I would like to remind all of you that:

  1. Most free agents aren’t worth the price you pay.
  2. Especially this offseason.

Moreover, I’d like to remind all of you that this Brewer team isn’t that bad as currently constituted, and the only thing I’ve heard in response is, quite frankly, nothing more than whiny pessimism. The fact is that the Brewers boast one of the top 5 offenses in the NL. Last year it was the best offense in the league.  It may not be the best again, but it is highly unlikely to be anything other than really good.

Part II – It’s the bullpen.  Stupid.

The Brewer bullpen was terrible last year largely because of bad luck. John Axford used to be really good.  I know sometimes closers flame out, but since his stuff still appears to be there, he’ll probably rebound.  Even if the Brewers go with Axford and a bunch of AAA guys they’ll still likely improve over last year.  Seriously.  Kam Loe had a 0.0 fWAR last year. He was LITERALLY replacement level.  He can be replaced by replacement level. Livan Hernandez was way below. Axford and K-Rod were barely positive (and both had lower than a -1 WPA). Veras led the pen at .5.  Bullpen arms are notoriously unpredictable and there basically are no sure things.  The Brewers got hit by a huge shitstorm last season, and that is extremely unlikely to occur again.  If they literally put out a team of replacement relievers it’s entirely possible that they would have a better season just based on regression to the mean, and of course they won’t do that. They have seven potential starters and 2 of those guys will probably end up in the pen with Axford and some filler, and be fine.

III. But, but the offense will regress too!

The Brewers are very likely to have a similar offense, and no, the Brewer offense will not regress into nothingness, they’ve been good for many years and we have a good basis for judging their true talent.  Last year they were first in the NL. In 2011 they were 5th. In  2010 they were fourth.  In 2009 they were 3rd. The mean is probably right around there. 

IV. Let’s talk about the rotation since you’re all experts on our pitching prospects.

So then we get to the starting rotation, which is our only area of concern really, and the starting rotation isn’t BAD. It’s unproven, but unproven and bad are not the same things.  See that article up above? AK pointed me to this comment:

“Bingo! The 08 Rockies at 74-88 added Jason Marquis, Jorge DeLaRosa and Jason Hammel for 09 all three had 5+ ERAs over the 3 years prior, all three were 3-4 win pitchers for Colorado that year. None were big acquisitions but all were added to a upgrade the Mark Redman/Elmer Dessen/Josh Fogg rotation filler of previous years.

Won 92 games the next year.”

Now you shouldn’t count on Jason Marquis  being good, but that’s not even what the Brewers are doing. Wily Peralta might be good.  Yo is good. Marco Estrada, despite some of your objections, appears to be pretty solid.**  Fiers is not Roy Halladay, but he is also more than he showed at the end of the season.  We have not even discussed Thornburg.  We drafted these guys exactly for this scenario and until they actually go out and play, none of you have any idea if they’ll be a disaster, so stop acting like they will be.  Fortunately the Brewer bats do not even demand that the staff be good, just average.

V. Tanking sucks. 

Here are a bunch of other reasons not to do it.

  1.  If you go 82-82 you still get a useful draft pick in baseball.   It is much more like football in this respect. 
  2. The Brewers have a bad TV deal. It helps them to have butts in the seats.
  3. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals went 83-78 and won the World Series. Assholes.
  4. The Brewers pay most of their money to Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, Jonathan Lucroy, and Aramis Ramirez.  Those players are all worth having for what they’re paid.
  5. The Brewers have largely avoided the free agent disaster, the occasional Suppan notwithstanding. Please remember this when bashing them for their lack of FA activity.
  6. If you are the Cubs or the Astros, rebuilding is fine, but their baselines are pretty low. It would take a colossal amount of luck for them to be good. The current Brewer baseline, in my opinion. Is roughly .500.  That’s a team that can still contend.  You tear down when rich 40-year-old Carlos Lee is your best, most expensive player.  You do not tear down when Ryan Braun is your best player. 
  7. The Brewers still play in a bad division in which Dusty Baker has pledged to make a starter of Aroldis Chapman.
  8. It’s fine to do a teardown for prospects at some point, but what is your rush? Outside of Hart, you still have a bunch of relatively cheap good players for a while longer, and due to the outlandish TV deals in other markets, you now have buyers for high salary good players.  There is no reason to bail too early. 

VI. Let’s wrap up.

I’m honestly shocked by the pessimism.  Bullpens go to pot sometimes. It happens. It’s nothing to panic about.  It sucks to lose Greinke and to a much, much lesser extent, Marcum, but it is entirely possible that the kids will not be a huge downgrade, and that the pen will make up for some of it.

The Brewers were 83-79 last year. They’re Pythagorean record was 85-77, and their bullpen made both of those artificially worse in my opinion.  I think their true talent level is about .500, and with only a small amount of luck they can still contend for another year, and probably more.

*Yes, those are large, friendly letters.

**Twice yesterday someone told me that Marco was “the new Dave Bush”. First of all, that wouldn’t even be a bad thing, and second of all, Marco strikes out way more people, gives up fewer home runs, misses more bats, and throws harder. And he’s not a converted catcher.  So where is this coming from?

 

 

The Braun Challenge

I’m writing this post for one reason, and one reason only.  Whenever someone claims that Braun is dirty or that he got off on “procedural grounds” it makes me mad, and explaining why is lengthy process. As I’ve covered in detail, Braun did NOT get off on a technicality and I even (sort of) predicted that he’d win his appeal in advance.

So now I can just link to my all-purpose Braun challenge:

If you believe Braun is dirty and got off on “a technicality” I challenged you to 1. Pee in a cup, 2. Let me take it home over the weekend and keep it in a Rubbermaid container in my non-temperature controlled basement, 3. have it tested for drugs the following Monday and 4. report the results to your employer.

If you’re willing to do that you have some credibility and some intellectual consistency. I’m guessing no one will ever consent to it. I know I wouldn’t. Letting tainted evidence decide your fate is a terrible idea.

Mailbag! *

Is a climbing wall shaped like a Mountain Dew can awful, a sign of the decline of Western civilization, or something else entirely?

M. Yellow, Atlanta GA

It’s an insult to the storied past of the Milwaukee Brewers and, in particular, to the late, great, Bernie beer slide.

The fact that Bernie Brewer is no longer dressed in lederhosen and no longer slides into a giant mug of beer is a travesty on par with the Black Sox scandal. The Marlins’ home run thing is like the physical embodiment of the lack of physical embodiment of the mug slide.

Anyway, my understanding is that having Bernie slide into a fake mug of beer at Miller Park for a team called the Milwaukee Brewers which proudly sells alcoholic beverages during games and which his famous for hour-long tailgating and somewhat irresponsible drinking by the entire fan base would be a bad influence on children.** I contend that the association of Mountain Dew, a poisonous beverage consisting of high fructose corn syrup and a dye that is a color that occurs nowhere in nature with an athletic pursuit like rock climbing is far more damaging to children than a guy sliding into a giant mug of beer.  The idea that it is a better idea to target people with Mountain Dew, which has 174 calories per 12 oz. versus, say, Miller Lite, which has 96 calories per 12 oz., is just dumb.

Also, a Mountain Dew climbing wall will be ugly and pointless because there’s a baseball game taking place and drunken idiots will probably fall off of it and die at some point. That too.

How many bobbleheads are too many bobbleheads?

Merton Hanks, San Francisco CA

There’s a beer festival at the Three Floyds brewery in Munster Indiana every year on the last Saturday in April called Dark Lord Day. It’s the only day you can purchase Dark Lord, their Russian imperial stout.   I used to go every year and I can report that for the last 3 years or so it’s been a huge pain in the ass.  Also, over that 3 year period I’ve realized that there will always be another good rare beer and you really need not torture yourself for a day for the privilege.

Herein lies the bobblehead conundrum; you need to maximize the drawing power of the bobblehead while still retaining their scarcity (i.e. collectability) and you must do so without discouraging the completest.

You have three kinds of bobblehead collectors.

  1. I must have Uecker!

Fans have certain players/announcers/mascots that they love and they will probably turn out for that player’s bobblehead day. These are the people you’re really going for with these promotions as you can use them to sell out less desirable games.

2. Completests

They’re niche-y and you don’t want to cater to them exclusively.  They’ll probably go to ten games but they probably won’t go to twenty.  You do want to abuse them with less desirable bobblehead days. Let’s face it, not every bobblehead is Ryan Braun. Sometimes you get this.

Now you’re probably thinking sure, not everyone is Ryan Braun, but that doesn’t mean you need to have Chorizo or Ed Sedar.  You could just go with lesser players. Except then you miss out on…

3. Hipsters!

Dude, I had the Rally Rabbit bobblehead before it was cool. ***

So Merton, to answer your question, 14.

Is the World Baseball Classic cool or just a cynical marketing ploy, mate?

D. Nilsson

It’s cool! To the extent I see hand-wringing about this event it’s almost always about concern for the health of MLB players (especially pitchers), but  the fact is that most position players aren’t at that high a risk (and certainly not much more risk than driving their cars, playing pickup basketball, or living in Venezuela), and pitchers can be controlled.

More importantly, we get more baseball! More baseball is always a good thing.  Look, we’re fans. If Miguel Cabrera goes out and gets hurt during the WBC that sucks for the Tigers and their super-rich ownership (and yes, their fans), but for most fans (who don’t cheer for the Tigers) that’s a risk worth taking to see more baseball. We shouldn’t care about the Tigers’ “investment”. It’s not our money. We enjoy the end product, not the inputs.

And the WBC is good for the game in general. It exposes other countries to the game, and it exposes us to the amazing quality of international baseball.  If baseball ever became big enough I’d love to see a Champions League style tourney where MLB clubs play against pro clubs from other countries. That’d be sweet.

OK last one.

Stats take all of the mystery out of baseball. You people are ruining all of the fun.

Ned F.

Well Ned, that’s not a question, but you couldn’t be more wrong.

There’s a lot that I don’t understand about people, but one of the bigger mysteries to me is the ESPN/Sports Talk Radio dumbing down of sports.  Look, I write on a blog that is devoted to criticizing a professional baseball manager, but I also understand that 90% of what baseball managers do is a black box to the casual fan and for all I know Ron Roenicke is a team chemistry genius. Football coaches are notorious workaholics who spend countless hours on strategic tendencies. Running a basketball team requires an almost supernatural sense not just of a player’s talent level, but of how he will fit together with 4 other players for every player on a 12-person bench.

High level sports are complicated.  And when something is complicated that means there is a LOT to talk about.

Trying to understand the game at a high level like a stat nerd adds to our enjoyment exponentially. Your average meatball thinks that players should just “play harder” or be more clutch (because that’s a thing you can do) or that managers should be more aggressive on the base-paths while bunting or hitting and running or various other old-school nonsense as if the manager and the front office haven’t considered this in great detail using spreadsheets and computer simulations and whatnot.****

Stat nerds think about things like pitch-framing, defensive shifts, platoon splits, the number of times a pitcher can go through a lineup, defense, and a million other aspects to the game. Home runs are cool, but getting Prince Fielder to ground out to short right field is cool too. There is a ton going on in any given baseball game.  Baseball is often called slow and sometimes called boring.  That’s only true if you don’t know what’s going on.

The most infuriating thing about the Cabrera-Trout argument was that to people who watch a lot of baseball Trout was an even more obvious choice. I’ve seen Cabrera boot so many balls. I’ve seen Cabrera hit into so many double plays. And I’ve seen Trout steal so many bases, and though he has been caught a few times, I have yet to actually see that. I’ve seen Mike Trout make circus catches, and I’ve seen him make routine catches that would have been circus catches for other people. I’ve seen Cabrera hit squeakers at Comerica that would have been easy fly balls in Anaheim that Mike Trout would have tracked down.

That argument was never about statistics. Statistics just tell you what happened anyway, there’s nothing inherently special about them. The AL MVP argument boiled down to how much you understood when watching baseball. It was fundamentally about whether you liked Home Improvement***** or the Simpsons.******  If you liked Home Improvement fine, I guess.  But you probably shouldn’t be voting.

*All questions are fake.  The answers are real though.

**I once saw a man drink an entire bag of red wine at a Brewer game. That guy was a bad influence on children.

***I would move mountains and take vacation days to attend Two-Fisted Slopper Bobblehead Day, or as I call it, Two-Fisted Slopplehead Day. Thanks to @klwillis45 for fixing my spelling.

****I’m different. I criticize them for too much bunting. Duh.

*****Set in Michigan! It works on multiple levels! Like the Simpsons!

******Created in Los Angeles! Just like the Angels claim to be!

No One Wants Josh Hamilton. Let’s Stop Talking About It.

I don’t even know why I’m writing this. For one thing I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that it actually happens. For another thing almost everyone I talk about sports with (on twitter and otherwise) agrees with me (to your great credit. Nice work everybody!), so it’s not like I’m even really arguing with anyone.  That said, the idea is still out there and in the spirit of Halloween it just won’t stay dead, and I’d like nothing better than to dismember this rumor and scatter the pieces to the four corners of the earth where they can never reform, raise from the dead, and start infecting my twitter feed again.

A few things need to be said about Josh Hamilton:

  1. He’s not a bad player in a vacuum. He’s quite good actually.
  2. There is obviously some level of compensation where I’d be fine signing Josh Hamilton.
  3. Josh Hamilton has various personal problems that have impacted his play in the past, and may very well do so again in the future.

So I don’t want this to sound like I’m declaring Josh Hamilton to be the worst player in baseball.  He’s not. And if they sign him to, say, Aramis Ramirez’s exact deal I’m probably fine with him, but that is not happening and unless he’s insanely cheap, he’s a terrible fit.  Here are 8 reasons why.

  1. He does not address a problem.

I’ve heard many post-season baseball announcers refer to the baby-eating Cardinals as “the best offense in the National League.” That is simply not true. The Milwaukee Brewers led the NL in runs in 2012 with 776, 11 more than the redbirds and 18 more than the Coors-inflated Rockies. No one else was even close. The fact of the matter is that the Brewers can regress on offense next year and still easily be top-5. Hamilton is primarily an offensive player. He does not add much, if anything, on defense.

2. He is not a CF, and his numbers are not nearly as impressive for a corner OF.

His UZR this season was -12.6, and his FRAA was negative as well (-1.5). He looks slower and will probably be consigned to the corners (or 1B) going forward. In center he’s no sure bet to be more valuable than Carlos Gomez simply based on defense.  This means that…

3. He replaces Hart or Aoki.

Both Hart and Aoki are both fine players. Hamilton is a better player than Aoki (probably) but he will also cost way more. Hart is still under team control for 1 more year (at $10,000,000), and while we all have concerns about his knees, consider that Corey Hart is younger than Josh Hamilton, at this point plays basically the same positions as Josh Hamilton, and over the last 2 years hasn’t been markedly less valuable than Josh Hamilton.  When Aramis Ramirez took over third it was a HUGE upgrade from Casey McGehee. Hamilton would barely be noticed.

4. Josh Hamilton has played his entire career in teeny-tiny ballparks.

At home his career OPS is .967. On the road it’s .858. Something to keep in mind.

5. The Brewers biggest problem is pitching.

This does nothing to solve it.  If he were to get a sizeable contract that hamstrung their ability to sign a pitcher it would not be helpful at all.

6. He misses games.

Josh Hamilton played in 148 games this season. It was the most he’s played since his age 27 season in 2008 and it was probably too much has he was far less effective after May (though he was pretty great in August). Last year he played in 121. The year before that he played in 133 games. The year before that, just 89 games.

7. His MVP season in 2010 looks like a crazy bonkers outlier.

He hit .359 that season. His next highest batting average is .304 in 2008. Those are the only times he’s hit over .300. His OBP was .411 in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 it has been .346 and .354, respectively.  He will almost certainly never have a season like that again.  It looks very out of place in his career stat line.

8. He has a lot of baggage.

If you sign Josh Hamilton you’re already taking a risk on an older player who will probably be moving to an easier position. You’re also taking the added risk of having a recovering drug addict who needs constant babysitting. (By the way, none of this should be construed as me calling Hamilton a bad guy. I think he has a serious problem, I think he realizes it, and I think he absolutely does his best to deal with it. That said, these problems are real, and if you’re paying the guy you have to consider them).

This whole Josh Hamilton thing has been a weird idea from the get go. It seems completely like a meatball sports radio comment that actually picked up legs somehow.   Unless he’s cheap, it’s insane and unnecessary. It’s like something big market team with money to piss away would do. It’s not what a smart club would do.

My Votes

I figured I’d explain my votes in the 2012 Brewers Blogosphere Awards because why not.

Team MVP (not just limited to position players)

1. Ryan Braun – Easiest vote ever. Led the team in every important offensive category, his defense wasn’t half bad. This season was better than his MVP season, and any BBWAA member who doesn’t vote for him is a hypocrite and a coward. Probably.

2. Aramis Ramirez – Ramirez gave the Brewers everything they expected and more. Anyone who drives Bob Brenly nuts automatically gets a bump in MVP votes in my book. Alex Rodriguez is 36 years old and signed for the next 5 years for 114 million dollars. Aramis is 34 and entering year 2 of a 3 year $30,000,000 contract.  Ha!

3. Yovani Gallardo – Some pitchers have better FIP and xFIP numbers than Yo, but the fact is that without Yo throwing 204 innings the entire pitching staff falls apart. Moreso. The next highest innings total on the team is held by Randy Wolf (142.1). Yeesh.

Best Pitcher

1. Zack Greinke – His time here was short, but I think we can all agree that dude was hilarious. He also had the best stuff on the team even if the results were sometimes confounding.  Even though his ERA greatly exceed his FIP, it was still lower than everyone else’s, and in the aggregate Zack didn’t even cost that much as he returned some decent prospects.

2. Yovani Gallardo – Not an ace, never will be. Yo is still young but he probably is what he is. A good pitcher who will give you a quality 200 innings, who will nibble too much and frequently have short outings, and who will always tantalize with his stuff.

3. Marco Estrada – Marco has shown constant improvement, and he seems to trust his stuff the way we all wish Yo would. In my opinion he has the best approach on the team. Doesn’t walk many, strikes out a ton, trusts his stuff in the zone. You may get to him, but you’re going to earn it. With his SO/BB numbers I think his ceiling is a 3, which is probably more than anyone really expected to ever get out of Marco. The fact that he’s effective out of the pen just adds to his value even more, especially considering his dominance the first 2 times through the order.

Best Newcomer (doesn’t have to be a rookie, just someone who wasn’t a Brewer last year)

1. Aramis Ramirez – On the short list of best free agent signings of last summer.

2. Nori Aoki – On the short list of best free agent signing of the summer.

3. Jean Segura – The return for Greinke,  Looks like he can handle SS just fine and has some room to grow into a better hitter. Showed enough to make everyone optimistic. Hit ground balls on 65% of his balls in play. Should he develop any loft to his swing there’s huge potential there.

Unsung Hero

I feel like everyone was pretty “sung.”

1. Martin Maldonado – Where was that power?  I see jerks like Pete Kozma come up on the Cardinals and rake all the damn time. It’s nice to finally see a surprise on my team. A good defensive catcher who suddenly developed the ability to hit 400 foot bombs? Just sitting around waiting for our starting All-Star caliber catcher to get hurt? Sure, why not.

2. The Los Angeles Dodgers

Brewers v. LA – 6-1

Cards – 5-6

Reds – 2-4

Thanks guys!

3. Travis Ishikawa

It’s not his fault that his stupid manager makes him stupidly sac bunt all the time. Pinch hitting is hard and he was adequate in that role, but Ishikawa was actually underrated by everyone (myself included) because of the bunting and the PHing.  Check out his numbers playing 1st base up against Corey’s numbers playing 1st base:

Ish – .255/.336/.471, 4 HR, 10 2b in 120 PA

Corey – .275/.339/.492, 19 HR, 21 2b in 416 PA.

It’s kind of a shame that Ish doesn’t have a bigger platoon split, but he actually hit lefties better than righties this year.  He did a nice job in whatever he was asked to do, played good defense, hit better than I expected, played wherever he was asked, and even had a positive (.36) WPA and RE24 (3.20) for his troubles.

Good Guy (have fun with this one if you want)

1. Rickie Weeks – He’s not just a good guy, he’s the best guy.

2. Zack Greinke – Every Zack Greinke interview is like Joe Montana in this SNL skit.

3. Carlos Gomez.  Dude won a game by stealing home from 1st.

Ron Roenicke’s Greatest Hits, Part 1A

K-Rod pitches on 4 consecutive days because DERP!

In many ways Ron’s use of K-Rod is even worse than his use of Axford.  I’ll keep this shorter because really, it need not be longer. In March/April Francisco Rodriguez had a 5.56 ERA. He had a few rough outings as much of the bullpen did.  But after that he settled down and had a nice 3.09 ERA in May and a 3.27 in June.  At this point K-Rod goes to shit.

You see in July, K-Rod pitched on 4 consecutive days. Twice. In July. From July 1st – 4th he threw 69 pitched. Then on July 15th, 16, 17th, and 18th he threw 83 pitches, culminating in a 35 pitch appearance in his 4th consecutive day on July 18th. Yes, Ron Roenicke allowed Francisco Rodrigues to throw 35 pitches in his 4th consecutive appearance*.

His ERA from July 1st through July 17th is 2.08. On July 18th he did manage to record a save but he also allowed run and walked 3 which would start a bit of a trend.

K-Rod’s ERA on July 1-17 was 2.08. After 4-game stint #2, his ERA for the rest of the month was 24.55. He gave up 3 runs (and 3 walks) on July 23rd. He gave up 2 runs (only 1 walk) on July 25th. He gave up 2 runs (1 walk, 1 HR) on July 29th. He got rocked again on August 6th and gave up another run (on a HR on August 10th at which point he returned to being a halfway decent pitcher.

That 2nd stretch of 4 in a row coincides with the K-Rod closer experiment and the Brewers’ complete meltdown in Philadelphia (the 3 consecutive 6-7 losses).

Ron Roenicke Had K-Rod throw on 4 consecutive days at the beginning of July because he was the set-up man to Axford’s 4 consecutive days of closing. He then threw him on 4 consecutive days 2 weeks later because he was the closer after Axford broke down for some reason. He then proceeded to blow a series in which the Brewers had big leads in every game.

1. The Brewers finished 5 out of the Wild Card. It probably would have been 4 had they left their starters in for all of game 162. How many games did it cost them to have Ron abuse Axford and K-Rod like this?

2. K-Rod ERA by Month:

Mar/Apr – 5.56

May – 3.09

June – 3.27

July until the 17th – 2.08

K-Rod pitches 4 days in a row for the 2nd time in one month

July 17th-31st – 24.55

July Total – 8.76

August – 5.06

Sept/Oct – 1.02

 

*Just two weeks after throwing on 4 consecutive days for the first time this season.