ZIPS v. PECOTA

I really do enjoy PECOTA day even though it’s ultimately kind of silly. Still, the reason I like PECOTA (and ZIPS) isn’t that they might be right or wrong, it’s that they give you a baseline to judge actual performance. If the Brewers are better than PECOTA thinks I can point to something like Wily Peralta exceeding his projection, and I like being able to do that.

PECOTA is also one of BP’s biggest selling point, so I’m not going to just print the Brewer projections here. That’d be stealing. What I will do is tell you whether PECOTA is higher or lower on any individual player.

Nori Aoki

ZIPS – .288/.342/.395, 7 HR, 31 2B

PECOTA – Higher

Rickie Weeks

ZIPS – .252/.344/.443, 22 HR, 22 2B

PECOTA – Higher, just barely.

Ryan Braun

ZIPS – .302/.371/.540, 33HRs, 37 2B

PECOTA – Higher, just barely.

Aramis Ramirez

ZIPS – .280/.338/.494, 23 HR, 32 2B

PECOTA – Lower, but basically even.

Mat Gamel

ZIPS – .261/.332/.440, 11 HR, 17 2B

PECOTA – ZIPS likes him better per play, PECOTA thinks he’ll play more.

Jonathan Lucroy 

ZIPS – .274/.328/.421, 12 HR, 20 2B

PECOTA – Lower

Carlos Gomez

ZIPS – .249/.300/.418, 13 HR, 16 2B

PECOTA – Lower

Jean Segura

ZIPS – .278/.325/.402, 9 HRs, 20 2B

PECOTA – Much lower

Corey Hart

ZIPS – .278/.329/.485, 27 HRs, 30 2B

PECOTA – Lower

Yovani Gallardo

ZIPS – 194 IP, 199 SO, 70 BB, 3.80 ERA, 3.57 FIP

PECOTA – Lower

Marco Estrada

ZIPS – 121 IP, 114 SO, 34 BB, 4.09 ERA, 3.69 FIP

PECOTA – He’ll pitch more, and worse.

Mike Fiers

ZIPS – 134 IP, 124 SO, 48 BB, 3.9 ERA, 4.10 FIP

PECOTA – More innings, very slightly worse.

Chris Narveson

ZIPS – 87 IP, 72 SO, 33 BB, 4.86 ERA, 4.37 FIP

PECOTA – More pitching, much worse.

Wily Peralta

ZIPS – 153.1 IP, 135 SO, 90 BB, 4.58 ERA, 4.42 WHIP

PECOTA – Lower

Mark Rogers

ZIPS – 109.1, 80 SO, 85 BB, 4.69 ERA, 4.91 FIP

PECOTA – Way less, and worse. This one makes no sense to me. PECOTA thinks Rogers strikes out way more than he walks, but still assigns him a higher ERA and FIP in fewer innings. Just weird.

John Axford

ZIPS – 66.1 IP, 83 SO, 32 BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.37 FIP

PECOTA – A little lower.

So there you have it.  PECOTA looks like it accounts for the Hart injury which explains some of the differences in the offensive end. To me it looks like the systems diverge wildly on younger players (Segura and Peralta in particular) and the innings breakdown among starting pitchers. ZIPS doesn’t think Narveson starts, and that Marco won’t throw that many innings.  PECOTA doesn’t think Mark Rogers lasts very long.

If you want to know more details, you’ll have to fork over some money to Baseball Prospectus.  You can find the Brewers’ full ZIPs projections here.

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