Have you read this Richard Griffin column about the Burnett-to-the-Pirates deal?

It’s insane, but I also got an odd sense of déjà vu reading the opening, and a quick look through my archives will tell you why.  This isn’t plagiarism exactly, but, well, take a look at this.  This is the start of Griffin’s piece:

Back on June 15, 1976, as the first wave of MLB serfs-in-spikes was about to hit the open market under the original rules of free agency, a commissioner’s decision cited as “in the best interests of baseball” was made by then-commissioner Bowie Kuhn.

Commissioner Bud Selig should have repeated that veto power with the Yankees and A.J. Burnett.

There is precedent. Those 36 years ago, cantankerous, contrarian A’s owner, Charles O. Finley had reacted pre-emptively to free agency with a fire-sale of all-stars, shipping soon-to-be-free outfielder Joe Rudi and closer Rollie Fingers to the Red Sox and lefty Vida Blue to the Yankees for cash totalling (sic) under $2 million (U.S).

And this is a part of a Jay Mariotti piece from August 2^nd, 2009 which I gave the FJM treatment:

And who is the man to deliver that news? Our Mr. Magoo commissioner, of course. Bud Selig is slow to the switch on everything, from the steroids crisis to the slow demise of a sport that isn’t turning on younger fans.

But he owes it to the people of Pittsburgh — and the competitive integrity of his sport — to investigate the Pirates and force the sale of the club if necessary. There is precedent, not that Bud ever follows it. In 1976, Charlie O. Finley, crackpot owner of the Oakland Athletics, tried dumping three of his stars — Rollie Fingers and Joe Rudi to the Red Sox, Vida Blue to the Yankees — in one swoop. This came after he let Catfish Hunter flee in free agency, which effectively proclaimed the end of a dynasty that included three straight World Series titles. So commissioner Bowie Kuhn responded by utilizing the “best interests of the game” clause and voiding the deals. And the courts backed him when Finley attempted a restraint-of-trade lawsuit.

So like I said, this isn’t plagiarism and I’m not accusing Griffin of it, my point is only this: If you find yourself closely aligned with Jay Mariotti on a topic, for instance, advocating that the commissioner use the “Best Interest of the Game” clause to protect the Pittsburgh Pirates from themselves, you should probably rethink your position on the subject.  Now, at this point I figured that Griffin’s article was probably going to be a Mariotti level train wreck, but I’m not actually sure that Jay cranked out anything quite this stupid, which is really saying something.  Just look at the rest of this thing.

Chump change now, but a king’s ransom then.

Kuhn took a closer look and cancelled both deals, citing the game’s best interest.

Flash forward. Selig should have taken the same critical look at the Yankees deal with the Pirates, a trade of pinstriped convenience that sent the underachieving Burnett and a huge chunk of cash to Pittsburgh for two prospects with ceilings lower than Snow White’s eight-bedroom cottage.

First, if anyone has a link to any modern article about the Bowie Kuhn veto I’d love to read it.  I don’t think commissioners should really ever veto trades outside of collusion, but that notwithstanding I’d like to see some analysis of this specific trade.  I suspect it was defensible, but it was before my time and I’m honestly not sure.

Second, Griffin’s statement here is an example of something we will continue to see through his entire piece, namely, his evidence supports the opposite conclusion.  Underachieving pitcher paid too much goes to Pitt with the Yanks picking up a bunch of salary.  They get two low level prospects in return.  Has there ever been a less controversial trade then that?

And finally, Snow White stumbled upon the cottage of the seven dwarfs.  It was their cottage, not hers, and I suspect that they did not have an additional bedroom constructed in the event that a princess came along one day and therefore it likely contained seven bedrooms, but while his metaphor was terrible at least it was topical.

The Yankees, after obtaining right-hander Michael Pineda from the Mariners, no longer needed A.J. But they do need some available cash to sign a left-handed hitting DH, like Johnny Damon or Raul Ibanez, and a utility player like Eric Chavez. The Yanks under the ownership of the Steinbrenner Lite brothers are trying to bring payroll down to about $189 million by the end of 2014.

Most people, when criticizing the Yankees, begrudge their free-spending ways.  The luxury tax exists specifically to prevent the typical Yankee spending, and here at least it seems to be doing the trick.  So Griffin is about to argue that this trade should be vetoed by the commissioner because the commissioner’s policies are working as planned.

They have been pounded by the luxury tax. But with Burnett, the Bombers needed a dance partner that has far less at stake, far more modest goals.

Round up the usual suspects.

Oh those Pirates.  Such suckers.  Remember when they failed to retain or traded Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, Ian Snell, Xavier Nady, Ronny Paulino, and John Grabow.  All-stars, all of them.*

The crux of the deal?

The Yankees get two mediocre minor-leaguers and pay $20 million of the final two seasons on their own bad contract for Burnett to pitch in Pittsburgh, while the Pirates pay just $13 million.

WHAT?!!!! I cannot BELIEVE that Alan H. “Bud” Selig would disgrace every baseball which bears his name by allowing this deal to go through.  The Yankees just keep buying players….except here the Pirates are getting the established MLB talent…but the Yankees, rich bastards, are getting…bad prospects.  Wait, what are we mad about again?

The prospects in return are right-hander Diego Moreno and outfielder Exicardo Cayones.

Is that a baseball deal?

It is a deal between baseball teams for baseball players who play baseball.  So yes.

It’s great for the Pirates because they are not a real contender and now have a short-term starting ace who won’t get attached and be looking for something awkward — like, say, an extension. It’s great for the Yankees because now they can add in other areas and win it all again.

For years the economic theory of Mercantilism, which held that exporting countries “won” compared to importing countries, dominated the world.  This theory is stupid.

We trade because we need good or services that we do not have but which we desire, and other people have different needs and desires.  Trade is mutually beneficial (otherwise you would not make the trade).  Both sides are winners, just as Griffin describes here.  This is an excellent example of the gains from trade.  I can’t even fathom how one could use this example to criticize a trade.

No risk for the Yankees and plenty of reward.

Right.  That’s how trade works.  Weren’t you listening?

Something doesn’t make sense.

(Hint: It was written by Richard Griffin on February 19^th, 2012, and is on TheStar.com and is this article that you are reading right now.)

The Bucs were tantalizingly close to a .500 record for more than half of the 2011 season, a modest breakthrough the team has not reached since Barry Bonds left in 1992.

Bucs GM Neal Huntington obviously feels that with Burnett at the top of the rotation, pitching for his next contract, no Big Apple pressure, no longer in the uber-tough AL East and for an average of $6.5 million per season the next two years, the trade is worth it.

I do not think that Richard Griffin should be allowed to buy milk for his family because it has calcium and protein and will make their muscles and bones strong.

The irony, and the reason Selig should have stepped in, is that Burnett’s not worth the same to a contender.

First of all, I don’t really think that’s true, at least in a vacuum.  It’s easy to envision a scenario where an above average back-of-the-rotation starter puts a team over the top. Second, this isn’t ironic.  Do you know why?  Because when you make a trade of any kind, you are asserting that what you are giving up (for instance, AJ Burnett and cash), is not worth as much as what you are getting back (for instance, two prospects).  That is why you trade.  The Yankees are TELLING you that Burnett is not worth as much to them.

Face it … the Yankees are dealing from the strength that comes with wealth. They have always acted in the best interest of the Yankees. Who can blame them, but when you are the team with the largest payroll in baseball, handing out the largest contracts, your decisions have spinoff effects that are not always in the best interest of the other 29 teams. Such was the case with the bloated Burnett contract after he opted out from the Jays following 2008.

Wait, someone gave a baseball player an outrageously expensive contract after a career year?  SHUT DOWN THE LEAGUE!  SHUT IT DOWN NOW!  AND FOR GOD’S SAKE DISBAND THE PHILLIES IMMEDIATELY!

On a more serious note, when the Yankees sign a player to a ridiculous contract  they may drive the price up for similar players and that may hurt other teams.  On the other hand, they also hurt themselves by overpaying, and take themselves out of the market for further players which can actually drive down bidding.  My point is that predicting the knock-on effects of any one signing is pretty difficult.  Sometimes prices go up, but sometimes when Jonathan Papelbon signs a four year, $50,000,000 deal, Ryan Madson is forced to take a 1 year, $8,500,000 deal and K-Rod is forced to accept arbitration.

With A.J. coming off an 18-win, 231 strikeout season, the Yanks outbid all comers. They offered an outrageous five years and $88.5 million for a guy who was barely .500 and has always required the presence of better pitchers on his own staff to be most effective.

GAH!  Wins!  Get it off, get it off, get it off.

AJ did have a good year with Halladay and Marcum in Toronto, but his best season was actually in 2002 when he had a 1.189 WHIP and a 122 ERA+.  (And a 3.30 ERA, if you like that kind of thing.)  The other WHIP/ERA+ in the starting rotation: 1.705/75 (Julian Tavarez), 1.531/87 (Brad Penny), 1.504/85 (Ryan Demptser), 1.272/99 (a young Josh Beckett).

None of those pitchers were very effective.  Beckett was OK, but Tavarez (who logged the 2^nd most innings after Burnett) was a train wreck, I believe Dempster got hurt, and Penny was awful.  So no, your point about Burnett needing better pitchers is not true at all.  He was in fact most effective in a year where he was by far the best pitcher on the staff.

The commissioner’s office should consider how that bad Burnett contract impacted other similar free agents in the winter of 2008-09 and the next off-season and how it had a negative trickle down effect that hurt small market teams like Pittsburgh.

What on earth do the “trickle down effects” of a deal that was made 3 years ago have to do with a trade today?  And your solution to rectify the harm from this deal which allegedly hurt Pittsburgh is to prevent Pittsburgh from making a trade?

In 2009 the Milk Companies hugely overcharged for milk.  They now want to lower the price of milk for the Griffin family, but since they overcharged small families like the Griffins three years ago I don’t think that the Griffins should be allowed to buy milk today.

Now, the Yankees are cavalierly buying their way out of trouble, refinancing happiness, manipulating the long-suffering Pirates’ fans and the baseball system that permits big mistakes to become smaller mistakes, maxing out on the money-back they can save on the final two years of a bad-for-baseball deal, while accepting two less-than-mediocre prospects they don’t want and don’t need just so Selig would approve it as a baseball-first deal.

Pirates fans are being manipulated.  They’re being asked to buy into this “above average starting pitcher” in a “mediocre division” that they’re getting at a subsidized rate just because the “big market team” “screwed up” and wants to “pay” your team to take him.

Did you like my scare quotes?  I was trying to manipulate Pirate fans into being scared.  Did it work?  No?  Perhaps it is because you are not all morons.

The Bucs weren’t the only suitors for Burnett this winter. The World Series contending Angels also inquired, but Burnett nixed those talks, preferring to go to the least successful franchise in baseball for the last 20 years. He’s now a big fish in baseball’s smallest pond.

So in addition to two teams exercising a mutually beneficial trade we have a player exercising rights gained through collective bargaining?  All of this mature, reasoned wheeling and dealing just makes me want to wretch.

A.J.’s forever been an enigma. His repertoire always exceeded his resume. The Jays thought they created something special when they paired Burnett and Roy Halladay at the top of the rotation in 2006. They got less than expected.

AJ Burnett on the Blue Jays, 3 seasons: ERA+ – 115, 119, 104.  WHIP – 1.305, 1.189, 1.342. Pitching in the AL East, he was really pretty good.  Not a stud, but certainly not a bust.  And even if they did get less than expected, all the better to let the Yankees overpay for him.  And what does any of this have to do with vetoing the trade?

Griffin’s argument now seems to go something like this: The Big Market team screwed small market teams by overpaying this pitcher and stealing him away from the Blue Jays even though he was disappointing there (even though he wasn’t) and now we should make it up to them by making him stay on the Yankees even though a small market team wants him.  I wonder if this column was originally written in crayon.

At least the Yankees won a World Series in A.J.’s first season, but the fact is for three years of electric stuff and erratic command, they will have paid $75.5 million

Wait…that’s the end?  That’s it?  That’s not even an argument.  It’s not even wrong.  The Yankees should be forced to stick with Burnett because…suspended ceilings are ugly.  Because Chik-fil-a sandwiches have pickles.  Pick whatever non-sequitur you like.

Richard Griffin’s family should not be allowed to purchase milk this year.  The Jorsp family down the street used to buy a bunch of milk 4 years ago but then some rich family decided they needed more milk and paid the milk company way too much money and the Griffin’s and the Jorsps were forced to subsist on Mountain Dew for awhile, which is all they could afford due to the trickle-down effects of the milk market, but the rich family realized they were paying too much for milk and offered to let the Griffin’s have some of their milk and even kick in some cash.  This clearly cannot stand.  To punish the rich family we should make them keep their over-priced milk because they are rich and made a mistake, and if the Griffin kids develop osteoporosis and all of their teeth fall out because of the Mountain Dew that’s OK because rich families and poor families need to be punished for the mistakes of rich families because…Oh man, I think I just drooled on my shoe.

*Yes, I left out Jose Bautista, and to a much much lesser extent, Jason Bay.

Ryan Braun’s positive test for testosterone showed a level that was extremely elevated, and likely the highest that has been recorded in Major League Baseball, according to sources with knowledge of the NL MVP’s test. – David Epstein, Sports Illustrated

Before I get too far into this I want to make a few things clear:

1. MLB’s substance abuse policy is pretty air-tight, and
2. Ryan Braun is very likely to get hit with a 50 game suspension.

That is the most likely outcome.  You do not have a lot of recourse under the policy, and once you test positive the odds just aren’t in your favor, and it doesn’t matter if you made an innocent mistake at GNC or had Jose Canseco shoving a needle into your buttock.

That said, the situation is not totally hopeless.   Look at the quote above.  The widely-reported fact that Braun may have set some sort of record in his test is excellent evidence that he may get off.   MLB has done a lot of testing and they have seen a huge sample of positive tests, spiked hormone levels, etc.  To set a record is a special thing.  A “normal” PED situation probably isn’t good enough to accomplish the feat.  Braun’s test is an outlier, and outliers are very interesting things precisely because they are not ordinary.

Outliers happen, of course.  In any scenario with a lot of random variation and a large enough sample you are going to get a few readings which are off the charts, but outliers are also rare, and we often use outliers to spot things outside of the norm.  Think about Freakonomics and Steve Levitt looking for cheating in Sumo Wrestling (or on standardized tests).  In both scenarios he established expectations of what should have happened and found data which clashed with those expectations.

Braun is only one guy, he’s not a systemic problem with lots of examples, but as a test gets more out-of-line with what we expect, the more questionable the test itself becomes.  These are perhaps not the best examples because in both cases Levitt found cheating and here I’m attempting to drum up evidence against cheating, but think about it this way.  In Levitt’s Sumo example the expectation is for honest matches, and he found evidence of dishonesty.  In Braun’s case our expectation among cheaters is for elevated testosterone, but Braun had higher testosterone than every single cheater.  His test is outside the norm for cheaters.

There’s a Simpsons episode where Professor Frink is attempting to reverse engineer the “Flaming Moe”.  It goes something like this:

Frink: Brace yourselves gentlemen. According to the gas  chromatograph, the secret ingredient is… Love!?    Who’s been screwing with this thing?

He was expecting to find something more like cardamom or bacon or buttermilk.  “Love” clearly indicates that the test itself was flawed.  It is an impossible answer.  The more a test result is like “love”, the more likely you are to have a bad test.  A “record level” of testosterone is not as ridiculous as “love” but you get the point.

The other point I want to mention is that everyone who says that no player has ever won an appeal is wrong.  The fact of the matter is that this process is supposed to be secret and it is entirely possible, and even quite likely that some players have won appeals.  Testing does not always go according to plan.  Lab techs are not perfect, doctors are not perfect, and those who take the samples are not perfect.  Some player has probably won an appeal and managed to keep the proceedings confidential, as it should be.   We even know of at least one minor leaguer who tested positive for a high testosterone level and was not suspended.  It is very possible that we only know about those who lost appeals, and if your formula for figuring out that “no player has successfully appealed” has as its denominator only those players who have lost appeals, your formula is garbage.

It’s possible that Braun’s suspension is being announced as I write this, but just keep in mind that the one way that a player at this stage can win his case is if something was wrong with the test, and one of the best indicators that something was wrong with the test is an abnormal test result.

So yesterday we acquired the sponsorship on Russell Branyan’s Baseball Reference page (note: I will be mentioning this at least 1000 more times because it makes me happy every time I do.) and while searching around BR for awhile I noticed some very interesting things about the prices of those sponsorships.  First, I was very surprised at just how many players don’t have a sponsor.  Maybe you don’t get much of a return on investment by sponsoring a page (and we certainly don’t expect to, we just thought it would be fun), but if you just get a kick out of it there are plenty of players available for 10 bucks or less.  So far the most expensive player I’ve found with space available is Pujols at $3220.  The cheapest to this point is Earl Henry Pruess (who had one career PA in 1920 for the St. Louis Browns in which he walked, stole a base, and scored a run.  Not a bad career!).  He’s two bucks.

I’m not sure how BR prices these, but it probably has something to do with page views and click-throughs and whatnot.  For this reason retired players are a complete bargain.  If Albert Pujols is worth $3220 (and Prince Fielder is worth $1480) how much do you think Ozzie Smith goes for?  Maybe the greatest SS of all time, Hall of Famer, etc.  How about $255?  What about Jackie Robinson, one of the greatest players of all time, broke the color barrier, etc.?  Only $240.  Oh, and if you’re interested you can get Paul Molitor ($220) and Robin Yount ($205) combined for less than it would cost you to land Aramis Ramirez ($525).

I would love to take total BR sponsorship dollars per team and see how well it predicts wins, but we’ll have to get to that some other time.  For now I’ll leave you with this:

Brewers Projected Starting Lineup (plus some extras).

Weeks – Taken

Morgan – $235 / Gomez – $100

Braun – $705

Ramirez – $525

Hart – $145

Gamel – $95

Gonzalez – $295

Lucroy – $105

Greinke – $310

Gallardo – $150

Marcum – $170

Wolf – $140

Narveson – $55

Axford – $125

K-Rod – Taken

Front Office – Counsell – $155

Future HOF – Taylor Green – $50

And for what it’s worth I’ve already gotten enough enjoyment out of this to justify Branyan. 

PECOTA came out today and Zelous Wheeler’s projection is fascinating.

I think I speak for everyone when I say that Zelous Wheeler has the best name ever, and we’re all cheering for the kid to make it.  That said, I think there may be a small typo his PECOTA projection because it likes him to put up a WARP of 1.4.  And to do so while hitting .233/.324/.365.  They do have him as a plus defender at 3rd (FRAA 3B – 7, SS – 1), but I don’t think it’s quite that plus.  

Then again maybe it is.  Alex Gonzalez is also projected to be bad offensively but his SS-8 projection drives him to a 1.5 WARP.  It’s all academic anyway as Ramirez and Gonzalez play his positions, but it’s interesting to think that Wheeler may be enough of a defensive maestro to provide protection against injury at 3rd and SS.  If I trusted defensive metrics at all and did not suspect that PECOTA was bonkers in this instance this would make me very happy.

Here’s a list of Brewer position players who are expected to be more vaulable than Wheeler:

Ryan Braun

Aramis Ramirez

Rickie Weeks

Corey Hart (barely)

Alex Gonzalez (barely)

Nyjer Morgan (barely)

That is all.  

Finally, here are Wheeler’s comps:

PECOTA day is pretty fun.