Cards v. Brewers, Just the Facts

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1. The Brewers have played 42 games. 10 of those (23.8%) have been against the 1st place Cardinals.

2. The Cardinals have hit 80 singles in the 10-game match-up. The Brewers have hit 73.

3. The Cardinals have 24 extra-base hits. The Brewers have just 18.

4. The Cardinals have 26 walks. The Brewers have 18.

5. The Cardinals have grounded into 8 double plays. The Brewers have grounded into 14.

6. The Cardinals put runners in scoring position 93 times. The Brewers put runners in scoring position 74 times.

7. The Cardinals got a hit with runners in scoring position 34 times for a BA with RISP of .366.

8. The Brewers got a hit with runners in scoring position 18 times for a BA with RISP of .243.

It may have seemed like the Cards nickel-and-dimed the Brewers to death this season, but they were just better offensively. They were also better pitching-wise but you don’t really need a big breakdown to see that.

Rosiak Chat Winners and Losers

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Before we get into this weeks’ winners and losers, a quick “get well soon” to Haudricourt from the RRSMB crew. He is a role model to us all. JS and Twitter won’t be the same while he’s out.

Here are your winners and losers from this week:

WINNER: Q: Derek, Superior, WI – Are relief pitchers allowed to throw more than one inning? It sure would be nice if they were. Then maybe some guys would be rested instead of using everyone all the time.

Derek, we love you.

LOSER: Q: craig, brookfield – is it accurate to characterize what you and haudricourt do with the brewers as journalism? it seems like you guys hardly do more than serve as a mouthpiece for the organization.. relaying the desired narrative. considering journal communications and the brewers are long standing business partners, is it unrealistic for fans to think the beat writers will do anything beyond soft peddle the coverage?

Oh jeez Craig, its sports, what exactly do you want them to do? And Haudricourt is awesome, how dare you.

WINNER: Q: Brad, Jackson, WI – Todd thank you for these chats, it’s great to have this type of forum available. With Axford’s continued failures, is sending him to AAA an option. And if they did would bringing up Tyler Thornburg be an option?

A question that needs to be asked.

LOSER: Q: Tom, Milwaukee – Todd, Bigger disappointment for the Brewers, Jason Arnett or Mark Rodgers? Both must frustrate the heck out of mgtm!!

I hope this is Haudricourt trolling Rosiak from his hospital bed, because neither of these players are real.

WINNER Q: Ben, Farmington Hills, MI – It is encouraging that we finally have some pitching depth in the minor league system. My question is about impact bats. Are there any prospects that project to be everyday players by the end of 2014?

This is an OK question. I’ll put this here because there are no other winners from today’s chat. The rest are all losing questions.

LOSER Q: Mateo – Good Morning Todd, It’s been tough to watch the Brewers collectively the first six weeks of the season. But it has been fun watching Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. I know Gomez worked out with Manny Ramirez in the offseason, and Segura follows Braun’s workout regimen. Do you see anything that fans don’t in terms of preparation that has contributed to their offensive success thus far? If both keep it up, they’ll be starting in the All-Star game in July.

Even though Rosiak missed it, what a lame steroid troll attempt

LOSER: Q: Bill, DePere – As crazy as it sounds would the Brewers consider trading Gallardo? He cannot beat two division rivals (Cards & Reds) and his velocity has dropped the last three years. Personally I do not believe he has the mental toughness to be a no. 1 starter.

Mental toughness! In 2011 Gallardo Went 8 innings of 1 hit ball in Game 1 of the NLDS, then followed it up by going 6 innings of 1 run ball in Game 5 to lead the Brewers to one of their best wins in franchise history. Is it his velocity drop or his mental toughness? Pick a lane Bill!

That will conclude this week. Get well soon Tom.

Is Rickie Weeks a Good Player in a Prolonged Slump,

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Or is he a bad player who (hopefully) has occasional hot streaks? For most if his career he’s been a good player, and occasionally a great player. I’ve been hoping that he’d snap back to that level of production and telling myself that it’s early. Thing is:

  1. It’s not that early anymore, and
  2. Given what we know of last year, we almost have the dreaded “large sample size”, and
  3. Rickie’s been hurt a lot, which doesn’t help you when you age, and,
  4. Rickie’s kinda old, and
  5. Rickie doesn’t have the best body type and has always been stretched at 2nd base, and
  6. He’s slower.

Yes, players do slump for more than a year. Yes, most players are not washed up by their 30th birthday, but the VAST majority of players never slump for a year, and some guys are essentially done when they’re 30.

I said on Twitter the other day that when I watch Weeks I’m reminded of Carlos Baerga and Jose Vidro (though they’re switch hitters, which is important for later). They were big-bodies 2nd baseman who hit for some power, and saw pretty steep declines around the age of 30. Baerga especially aged extremely poorly partially due to injuries.* A more optimistic comp who shows up in both PECOTA and on B-Ref’s comps list is Kelly Johnson, who has experienced Weeksian slumps in his age 29 and 30 seasons but who has, at least so far, bounced back this year:

2011: .222/.304/.413

2012: .225/.313/.365

2013: .275/.361/.471, (32 games)

Career until 2010: .269/.352/.447

So maybe there’s hope there, but then again, maybe not. Johnson is an interesting character in his own right. He had the same career year as Rickie Weeks in 2010 when Weeks was the most valuable 2nd baseman in baseball. Johnson had a 5.4 fWAR, 3rd among 2nd baseman only to Weeks and Cano at 5.8. He then experienced a precipitous decline. Here’s a side by side of Weeks and Johnson since 2007:

Johnson                               Weeks

2007                       3.3                                          3.1

2008                       2.3                                          2.3

2009                       .6 (106 games)                   1.3 (37 games)

2010                       5.4                                          5.8

2011                       1.7                                          3.4

2012                       .5                                            1.1

They look pretty close over the course of their careers, and Johnson is off to a nice start this year, (and read this) but there’s one huge difference between the two. Kelly Johnson bats left/throws right. This season he has feasted on RHP, hitting .288/.369/.534 in 84 Pas versus .241/.343/.310 against LHP. Johnson has not always had such extreme splits, but as players get older the difference often grows. Johnson, by virtue of his left-handedness, can probably survive this for quite a while as most pitchers (and people) are right-handed and as you can see, the Rays have been good about limiting exposure to the weaker side.

Rickie Weeks isn’t exactly raking against lefties, but he’s noticeably (over .200 points of OPS) better against them**. In 41 Pas against LHP Weeks is hitting .212/.366/.364 with 1 HR and 2 doubles. In 108 Pas against RHP he’s hitting .170/.278/.245. Looking at batted ball data the contrast is even starker for Weeks. He doesn’t have a good BABIP in general (.273 v. L, .246 v. R), but while both are lower than his career .303, there is more reason to believe that he’s been unlucky against lefties than righties. His LD% against lefties is a very solid 26.1%. 20% of his flyballs have left the yard against lefties. Against righties his GB% is four points higher, his LD% is 6.5 points lower, he hits way more infield flies, and only 6.7% of flyballs have left the yard. I’m not sure how to look up contact rate splits on Fangraphs so maybe someone can help me out there, but we have enough to conclude that Weeks has been better in almost every measure against lefties, and by a fairly substantial amount.

Let’s assume for a second that Johnson and Weeks are truly similar, or, at least were until very recently.  They had similar peak seasons, similar ascents, and similar declines. They both had quick bats in their youths and hit everyone pretty well. But when you get old and your bat slows down, it suddenly starts to matter which side of the plate you stand on. The big advantage in being a lefty is simple demographics. Johnson has obviously been better than Weeks this year, but just look at the different ways they‘ve been exposed to their weaknesses.

Another common Weeks comp is Dan Uggla, a right-handed hitter. He’s hitting .197/.309/.409 in 36 games this year. He has an OPS of 1.002 in 38 PAs against LHP and a .628 OPS in 111 PAs v. RHP. If you reverse those opportunity numbers you have an All-Star, but with this breakdown in the aggregate you basically have Yuni. A low OBP guy “with some pop.”

If you want my prescription on possibly saving Weeks, put him in a strict platoon for a while. Put him in situations where he can succeed. This will limit his time for a bit, and I actually don’t even care if his platoon partner is a lefty or not, but if your goal is to build his confidence, this is a way to do it. If you want to get the most out of him, for now, this is the way to do it.

I’m not sure if Weeks is a bad player who will have occasional hot streaks, or a good player who will have occasional slumps at this point, but his comps and the side of the plate he stands on suggests that he may now be the former. That’s not a good thing, but at least there’s a way to deal with it.

*He had a minor comeback from 2002-2005, driven mostly by a crazy year for Arizona in 2003, but mostly he was washed up after 1999.

**Over his career this is truer of Weeks than of Johnson. Weeks has always hit lefties better, Johnson historically is more balanced.

Ron Roenicke is not the Problem*

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Maybe its just that I follow the @JSComments feed, Haudricourt’s weekly chats and catch the occasional bit of Bad Sports Radio, but I feel like I need to say that this season isn’t really Roenicke’s fault. Or, its as much his fault as 2010 was Ken Macha’s fault.

People who are calling for Roenicke to be fired – stop it, you’re making people who have legitimate gripes and still get the shakes when they think about Mark Kotsay playing CF look like idiots.

We started this blog in 2011 after this game in which the Brewers lost 1-0. In this game Ron Roenicke had Yuniesky Betancourt at 3rd base with one out in the 5th inning, and Randy Wolf at the plate. He decided to put on the squeeze play. Wolf didn’t make contact with the next pitch and Yuni was hung out to dry.

Read that again: he attempted a squeeze play with Randy Wolf and Yuniesky Betancourt in the 5th inning.

To top it off, Wolf doubled on the next pitch and the Brewers would go on to lose 1-0.

That actually happened and is the stuff that drove/drives me nuts and makes me question RRR’s sanity.

But I digress, here are some numbers:

  • 3.53
  • 4.70
  • 5.40
  • 6.05
  • 6.86

Those are the ERAs of the starting staff. You’re not wining many game with those numbers. It really is that simple. All the other stuff is just noise.

Sure he still struggles with basic baseball stuff like the fascination with having an 8th inning guy, and the bunting is still confusing, albeit as Disciples of Uecker point out, slightly less this year (I think its random SSS as bunting varies greatly from month to month for every team) and whatever he’s trying to do with John Axford.

So if you’re mad at Roenicke for playing Rickie Weeks, think the team isn’t fired up enough or blame him for Gallardo and the rest of the dumpster fire SP rotation being bad, google Ron Roenicke, find this site and think we agree – we don’t. Go away.

*This year

JS Chat Winners and Losers Part III

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Haudricourt is back!  And he took like 500 questions. Good rebound from Rosiak and his 16 question performance last week.

Away we go….

WINNER

Q: Joan Brayer, Janesville, Wisconsin – Dear Mr. Haudricourt, My question to you sir …………….How do I purchase two autograph copies of your book? I saw your interview on FSN and your book sounds awesome!! I would like to compare some of the things in your top 100 list as to what I have done thus far with the Brewers! Just a few…….last Thursday night for the 5th year in a row I obtained Bob Uueker’s autograph. This time it was on his nestling doll! I have had his book signed, a ball, a Brewer tee shirt with his name and number on it and stories and pictures to prove. This is done in a very quiet manner as I try to obtain items for breast cancer, raffles, silent auctions etc. I have the items myself and obtain all my autographs. Done with preparation, timing, luck and with God’s help! One of your books will go towards that purpose! Plus the other I am most anxious to read. That night I tried to get Y. Molina’s autograph on a small pink bat to no avail. We watched his brother Jose come up in the minors in Rockford Illinois! I got to see Johnny Damon at Miller Park when Brewers played Tampa. We also watched him come up in Rockford. At that game he autographed his book and a Rockford program that had his cover on the year after he was there. In that program is a picture of my husband, our daughter Sarah and myself with a sign I made. Caught his eye coming off batting practice! Have you ever saved a person’s life or administered first aid at a ball park? Being a RN, I ‘ve done it too many times!!! Have you sat at the very top of Miller Park with a sign that reads “Down in front?” I know you have sat in Brewers dugout………..I have too with my Dad, Husband and sister……On a Brewer caravan through Beloit I won the greatest door prize!!! Ben Sheets, “the Rock” and Gorman Thomas was the one who drew out my name!!! To sit in the dugout was part of the package! I would give anything for a baseball(s) that my dad signed that day to some little boys. Their mom was with them……we come out of the dugout…they see my dad with white hair and cane and think he is some baseball player. The mom asked if he played and he replied during WWll. He never played baseball but he is very much responsible for the love I have of the game!!! Dad put Johnny Acco for an autograph! That in itself is a long story! Have you won a 50/50 or picture up on Jumbotron for winning last year US Cellular picture with cut out with John Axford and one of my infamous signs? I won the 50/50 in the early part of the season last year and on the Jumbotron in late September of last year! Have you had a fan from opposing team want to buy your Brewer baseball cap because the way you had it made up? Have you won bets or dares going to a ball game at Miller Park and pull it off? Someone dared me to go to Miller game wearing a Boston baseball cap and a New York Yankee jersey! I did and the Alzheimer’s organization received the payout. Have you been in charge of a family tail gate at Miller Park? You see I love baseball!!!!! I am 62, night before birthday this year 4/3 was at my first game of season! Earlier stated I am a RN and I am also a 3 1/2 years breast cancer survivor. During my cancer surgeries and appointments I would take a baseball bat and wear a jersey. The bat was sign by the most important people I have ever obtained autographs from during my treatment! I have 4 large bats and two small ones with the goal of taking them to Cooperstown as I have never been there and definitely on my “Bucket List!” I love baseball movies with one of my favorites “A league of Their Own!” I plan on going to the 70th anniversary of the AAGPBL as I volunteered to do whatever they needed help with and my services as a RN. Miller Park use to have gals come but I don’t believe it has been years. Plus many of these gals are no longer with us………..Pepper Paire-Davis passed away this past February. I think this just might be the longest question you have been asked! Sorry about that………….I just love baseball and would like to know how to get your book. I cannot make your signing there tomorrow. I thank you! Play Ball! Joan Brayer 4502 Hearthstone Drive Janesville, Wisconsin 53546 (phone number redacted, but she actually posted it, and did you really read this whole thing? Kudos). 

This is an insanely long question. Joan seems like a nice woman and I wish her the best.

WINNER:

Q: Simba, Fond du Lac – All the attention getting paid to Weeks struggles, is anybody concerned with Lucroy and how he has looked this year. Might be time to get Maldonado a few more starts. He is by far the better defender and they would not be losing much with the bat right now. Do you agree?

Nice of Ted Simmons to pop in. Lucroy has looked terrible this year. I don’t know if I’d give Maldy the “by far” better defense (especially pitch framing), but Lurcoy has not been good and it seems like no one cares/notices.

LOSER:

Q: Greg Underwood – Do you see any player down on the farm that will help the big league club this year? I know injuries usually dictate moves, but I am thinking of a Ryan Braun type of player.

A Ryan Braun type player? Like a guy on a HOF type track? I think you would have heard of such player had he existed. To answer your question though – yes they do, his name is Scooter.

WINNER:

Q: Ben, Unity, WI – Is there a noticeable change in Gomez’s approach at the plate that is allowing him to hit so well this year?

Sure

LOSER:

Q: Carl “Lazagna” Swenson, De Pere, Wisconsin – Tom: in your years covering the Brewers, do you recall the Famous Racing Sausages ever joining in a bench clearing brawl, or a race suddenly turning into a fist fight that precipated a bench clearing brawl? Or have the races always been controversy-free? Thanks for clueing me in and doing such a good job.

WTF. If you’re going to troll Tom, be better please.

WINNER:

Q: – A few relief pitchers at Nashville have been throwing well, Hand, Wooten, Sanchez and even Olmsted has been throwing well. He has too many walks though. If the team needs help, which pitcher is most likely to be called up?

I like this question, something I’ve been wondering too.

LOSER

Q: George, Appleton – I think part of Gomez and Yuni’s success to start the season is due to them batting in tandem specifically Gomez ahead of Yuni for most of their hot streak. Yuni hardly saw the field for the first 2 weeks of the season and Gomez struggled. Gomez and Yuni really took off starting with the last game of the Cardinals series and you will notice they have batted in tandem almost daily since then. Do you think these two batting in order has had a significant impact on their success thusfar?

You know the Yuni love has jumped the shark when people are crediting his presence in the batting order for Carlos Gomez’s hot start. Jeez.

WINNER:

Q: Steve, Cedarburg, WI – Who is in charge of the replay at Miller Park? There is never a replay of a close play–ever! Is this a Brewer or a MLB decision? Is this common practice at other stadiums? The Bucks and Packers replay all the action

I’ve also noticed this and wondered what MLB’s comment would be. Its frustrating to be at the game and not have close plays shown.

LOSER:

Q: wiscal – What do you think Billy Bean would do if he were the GM and R&R keeps Weeks batting 5th and Axford pitching in close games?

This response would actually probably be a good Badgernoonan post.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “Bean” has played guys who are struggling before.

LOSER

Q: Appleton Fox, Appleton/WI – Do you think Mark Antanassio is wearing blinders in thinking Doug Melvin and Ron Roenicke actually know what they are doing? Melvin had made so many costly personnel blunders it borders on being criminal. Roenicke is completely lost when it comes to making rational managerial moves. Are the Brewers stuck with these 2 losers because Antanassio can’t see their incompetence?

Step off the ledge Mr. Fox.